Almost exactly 10 years on from the Paris Agreement, the progress of climate action remains “woefully inadequate”, warns the new State of Climate Action report. But rather than be dispirited, we need to grab every chance to get ourselves back on track. Change is happening, just not at the pace and scale needed.
COP30, starting in less than two weeks, remains a huge opportunity to pull us back from irreversible tipping points. That’s why, whatever your view on the value of the UN’s annual climate change conference, the reality is that we can’t afford for it not to work. Despite controversies around accommodation costs in Belém and parts of the Amazon forest being cut down to build roads for the summit, COP30 can and must generate real progress.
As António Guterres, the secretary general of the UN, puts it, the alternative without COP is a “free-for-all”, where there will be a “small privileged elite, people and companies that will be able to always protect themselves… floods will spread, communities will be destroyed, but there will always be a group of rich people and rich companies that will be able to protect themselves as the planet is being progressively destroyed.”
Here’s five overriding reflections as we countdown to it.
COPs can have a big impact, but we need countries to stand up
Prior to COP15 in 2009, the planet was heading to 6C of warming. Following commitments made at that event, by 2015 this was down to around 4C, and it is now closer to 2.5C. These reductions show what’s possible – and highlight that governments committing to multilateral climate action remains a hugely powerful way to drive down emissions.
A vital task facing governments ahead of COP30 is to submit new national climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, as things stand, fewer than a third of the world’s nations (62 out of 197) have sent theirs in, while others have put forward disappointingly unambitious NDCs. We need countries to take responsibility – particularly those responsible for the most emissions.
Of course, Trump is doing his best to derail climate progress, and it’s unclear whether the US will send an official delegation to Belém. But determined world leaders need to show their courage. As Ban Ki-moon said recently, “history will remember who showed up”.
There is power in the call for a global Mutirão – if every voice is heard
Climate action is not only for national governments to dictate. That’s why the Brazil COP30 hosts have called for a global Mutirão – which envisions local governments, indigenous peoples, social movements, civil society and citizens everywhere as co-creators of climate solutions.
In Brazil, a mutirão refers to a community-led mobilisation where people come together to accomplish a shared goal; for example, building a house, restoring land, or planting crops. The tradition is rooted in Indigenous practices and the term “Mutirão was adopted by the COP30 presidency to encourage widespread climate action worldwide.
Some 60,000 people are expected to be at COP30 – including policymakers, CEOs, NGOs, academics and indigenous peoples. We need everyone on board.
That said, the Least Developed Countries Group on Climate Change explained recently that “a significant number of negotiators” from its 40+ member states “may either not attend or only be present for a few days”, due to limited accommodation and excessive travel costs. If poorer countries have minimal delegations, then this COP, which aimed to spotlight inequality in the Amazon, could paradoxically be less inclusive than past COPs.
With the most ambitious forest finance innovation ever, COP30 could accelerate the end of deforestation
Hosting the event on the doorstep of the Amazon rainforest, often referred to as the “lungs of the Earth”, highlights the critical role of forest preservation in combating climate change.
The Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) is Brazil’s flagship initiative for COP30, which could channel up to USD$4 billion a year to tropical forest nations, with 20% reserved for Indigenous Peoples and local communities. The fund is based on the premise of making forest protection more financially viable than destruction.
Set to launch fully at COP30, the TFFF could become one of the world’s largest multilateral funds, with over 70 developing countries eligible to receive funds. With the fund anticipated to last for up to 30 years, it could be a reliable source of funds for forest protection for a generation.
The market is driving a renewables revolution; COP30 can unleash its full potential
In 2024, $2 trillion went into clean energy – $800 billion more than fossil fuels and up almost 70% in ten years. The market understands that renewables are the future – business know that it makes sense to invest in the skills, technology and the market of tomorrow.
Countries everywhere are shifting to clean energy. In the Global South, 87% of capital expenditures on electricity generation are going into clean energy.
Decision makers at COP30 must now unlock this full potential. Policies such as simplified licensing, grid infrastructure expansion, and the regulation of new and stable market structures can ramp up renewable energy all over the world.
Described as the ‘delivery COP’, the devil will be in the detail
COP30 is being described as the ‘delivery COP’ – and the focus will be on turning past promises into real action. No single issue alone seems likely to dominate the debates and negotiations – instead, the event will cover a wide range of ground, with a focus on putting previous pledges into practice. Ultimately, whether COP30 is a turning point or another missed opportunity will come down to the detail of the negotiations and how bold and brave countries are willing to be.
As Wajã Xipai, the Indigenous journalist, writes beautifully: “Humanity needs to learn again what the river never forgot: persistence. Because the river doesn’t stop. It flows, returns, spreads, skirts the rocks, and continues. And if the river insists on flowing, even wounded, perhaps there is still hope that humanity will find, in the waters, the meaning of resistance.”
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