With Climate Week NYC drawing to a close and attention turning towards Antalya, COP31 is shaping up to be one of the most consequential climate summits in recent years.
The annual UN climate conference remains a complex, consensus-driven negotiation process, taking place against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, economic uncertainty and competing policy priorities. While the language and political context may have shifted, the pressure to demonstrate tangible climate progress has not.
This year, the focus is less on announcing ambitious targets and more on proving that governments, businesses and investors can deliver against them. That shift, brought about in part by the rapid escalation of climate change impacts over the past year, is likely to define many of the conversations, negotiations and announcements that emerge from COP31.
A different kind of COP
Taking place in Antalya, Türkiye, from 9-20 November, COP31 is unique in its governance structure. Türkiye is hosting the summit and holding the COP Presidency, while Australia will lead the formal climate negotiations. Pacific nations have also played a significant role in shaping the agenda through the wider partnership.
The presidency has sought to position COP31 as an action-oriented summit, centred around three headline goals:
- Increasing electrification, raising electricity’s share of global energy demand from 20% to 35% by 2035.
- Halving the growth of global waste by 2035.
- Improving energy efficiency in buildings, including a target to reduce energy consumption intensity by at least 25% by 2035.
That focus reflects a wider trend we’ve seen across the sustainability agenda over the last year. Businesses and policymakers are increasingly talking about resilience, productivity, competitiveness and growth, rather than sustainability in isolation. Climate action remains central, but the narrative around it is evolving.
Climate finance remains unresolved
Following difficult discussions in recent COPs around the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), pressure is mounting to move from promises to delivery. Developing countries continue to demand greater access to funding for both mitigation and adaptation, while questions remain over the scale, quality and accessibility of climate finance flows. COP31 is expected to focus heavily on scaling finance mechanisms and ensuring support reaches the countries and communities most exposed to climate impacts.
For businesses, this matters because finance increasingly underpins almost every discussion at COP, from energy transition and adaptation to nature, food systems and industrial decarbonisation.
Food, water and resilience move up the agenda
The COP31 presidency has identified water and food security as major priorities, reflecting growing concerns about the vulnerability of global food systems and natural resource scarcity. Discussions are likely to focus on reducing food loss, strengthening resilience across agriculture and improving water management and access.
Recent heatwaves, droughts and wildfires across multiple continents have provided a stark reminder that climate impacts are not future risks very real and very immediate realities. As a result, adaptation and resilience measures are expected to feature more prominently than ever.
The acceleration of AI as a climate issue
AI has already become a major topic at events such as Climate Week NYC and UNGA, driven by growing concerns about the energy demands of data centres and large-scale computing infrastructure.
COP31 organisers have, unsurprisingly, signalled that AI’s environmental footprint will be a summit priority. Speaking during Climate Week NYC, COP31 President and Turkish Climate Minister Murat Kurum said the summit would address “growing fears over the rise of AI” and its carbon footprint, while encouraging technology companies to be more transparent about energy use and power operations with clean energy. The presidency is also developing a voluntary political pledge focused on climate-responsible AI and plans to showcase examples of responsible AI deployment in practice.
This reflects a broader challenge facing policymakers and businesses alike. AI is rapidly becoming embedded in climate solutions, from grid management and climate modelling to resource optimisation and supply chain management but, at the same time, questions are growing around the energy consumption, emissions and water demands associated with AI infrastructure.
Beyond the negotiating rooms
While the formal negotiations will drive headlines, many of the most influential conversations will happen elsewhere.
The Blue Zone and Green Zone programmes will host hundreds of side events, roundtables and discussions involving businesses, NGOs, investors and policymakers. The International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) Business Pavilion is expected to act as a major hub for private-sector engagement, while national pavilions will provide platforms for countries, coalitions and organisations to showcase solutions and build partnerships.
As with every COP, announcements, partnerships and thought leadership will sit alongside negotiations. The organisations that stand out will be those able to connect their expertise to the issues dominating the agenda and demonstrate tangible progress rather than future ambition alone.
So, should we be optimistic?
COP31 arrives at a challenging moment. Geopolitical tensions remain high, economic pressures continue to dominate government agendas, and progress towards global climate goals remains uneven. However, there is also evidence of growing momentum around implementation, investment and real-world delivery.
Whether it’s electrification, climate finance, food systems, adaptation or the emerging challenge of AI, the summit’s success will ultimately be judged not by the number of speeches or pledges announced, but by whether it moves governments, businesses and investors closer to meaningful action.
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